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Research Areas
CANSA members
felt that neither the INC nor the UNICED processes were
adequately addressing some of the priority questions of
Southern countries, particularly the South Asian countries.
Further, CANSA members recognized that there were some myths
about population issues and the consumption questions were not
highlighted sufficiently in the research. It was also noted
that climate change will exacerbate climate related natural
disasters and the poor would again be victims due to climatic
instabilities. Thus the First Regional Meeting of CANSA
identified the following three key research areas for
focussing CANSA research activities.
1. Climate
and Poverty
The objective
of the research is to establish the linkages between poverty
and climate change. For both the government and the NGOs in
South Asia, poverty alleviation is the central focus of their
planning efforts. Poverty is already an unbearable state and
is a major retarding force in development. Impacts of climate
change are likely to affect those who are already most
vulnerable. The issues arising out of the discussions and
which may be included in the paper are :
- How much
control do the poor have over their existing life style? To
what extent do the poor have to adapt, migrate or to change
agronomic practices as a consequence of impacts of GCC?
- What role do
international forces play in perpetuating and directing
life-style of the poor through trade, aid or determining
research agenda?
- While it has
been argued that it is difficult to identify winners or
losers of climate change at a conceptual level, in reality,
the poorest are the least able to bear the burden of change
and consequently, the greatest losers. For example, the
impact of cyclone of similar intensity killed over 100,000
people in Bangladesh while the casualty in the Mississippi
delta was less than one hundred. The relative impacts on the
country's economy are qualitatively different. The ability
of the poor to bounce back is limited and their existing
vulnerability is accentuated by climate change related
impacts.
- Dynamics of
poverty is independent of climate, but exacerbated by
climate change.
- The life-style
forced on the poor and imposed developmental prescriptions
have assumed a direct and proportional relationship between
living standards, energy needs and therefore GHG emission.
This paradigm must be challenged and the forces that
perpetuate this must be overcome.
- Technology
Status is a determinant e.g., biomass burning can be made
more efficient to provide higher level of energy service.
- The relatively
longer time-scale of climate change distorts priority of
economic planning. Economic planners feel a compulsion to
deal with desperate poverty needs which shortens time
horizons, making them less able to deal with longer yet
inevitable change. This perpetuates the long-term state of
poverty.
- Perception of
poverty is a function of state of development or economic
status. Northern CAN groups will need to be motivated to
undertake the poverty linkages with climate and make it a
priority issue in their own governments.
2.
Climate, Environment and Population
There is an
unchallenged contention that there is a causal and direct link
between increased population and climate change. Population is
linked to climate change only through the intermediate stage
or process of consumption. This fact may be illustrated by the
GHG equivalent population distribution curves.
The major
focus of this research project will be :
- Looking at the
relationship population, energy consumption and GHG
emission.
- Policy action
should be directed at the climate-consumption link rather
than targeting at the population-climate links only.
- Whereas
control or regulation of human activities is an accepted
legitimate function of govt. controls of the right to
reproduce present far thornier ethical questions specially
if imposed as a result of international negotiations. Direct
regulation of population presents enormous socio-political
disruption (e.g., Indira's India. 1977 and China's female
infanticide).
- Factors
determining population growth : Certain increase in standard
of living as measured in PQLI (Physical Quality of Life
Index) will reduce population growth (e.g. Kerala, Sri Lanka
and Europe in early twentieth country).
- Role of women
: Women literacy and awareness has a far greater impact on
population growth rate than only contraception practices.
- Regional
relationship and life style : While more affluent societies
consume for luxury, poorer societies are involved in
subsistence activities. They are qualitatively different and
need to be treated as such.
- While
countries (regions) should control population? Or, should
consumption be controlled to make the greater impact on
climate change?
- Undoubtedly,
in a future the emissions of the developing countries would
increase with the expansion of the economies. The rate of
growth and the cumulative levels of emission will be
integrated factoring in historical emission of
industrialized countries.
- It has been
proven that development is the best antidote for population
growth.
3.
Climate Change and Natural Disasters
The impacts
of Global Climate Change include sea-level rise affecting
coastal areas and island states, greater intensity of cyclones
and probably enhanced precipitation in monsoon areas. These
have their reinforcing feed-back mechanisms.
A recent
study (November 1991) published by Bangladesh Centre for
Advanced Studies that : "The coastal areas of
Bangladesh
were devastated by a cyclone in 1991. Victims of the 29 April
1991 cyclone and tidal bore were all components of the
environment : human beings, animals, trees, soils and water
bodies. Floods cyclones, tidal bores and earthquakes are not
the only disasters; poverty is also a disaster. The impact of
a natural disaster is determined by the extent of devastation
caused by the event. When resources are already scarce and the
baseline is under pressure, the advent of a disaster stretches
the fabric of society to its limits."
If the same
cyclone were to hit the US coast of the Mississippi Delta, the
loss of human life probably would be less than one per cent of
that of Bangladesh. The infrastructure loss in absolute
monetary terms may be larger but as a proportion of national
GDP or annual budget would be insignificant in the case of
say, the USA, while it is a major and signify cant proportion
of Bangladesh's economy.
Another
example is that the Netherlands may be in a position to
protect itself against one metre sea-level rise, while the
Maldives neither has the means not the real possibility to
take effective mitigation measures.
Thus the
impact of a natural disaster is as much a function of the
causal event as of the economic status of and the capacity to
cope by the communities and countries that are affected.
It also
appears that poorer communities which are already vulnerable
to natural disasters are again going to be the victims of
impacts of GCC and consequently exposed to even greater
vulnerability.
Thus the main
focus of the research will be :
- Identification
of linkages between types of natural disasters and impacts
of climate change.
- Attempt to
identify special vulnerable areas which are prone to natural
disasters and impacts of climate change related events.
- Attempt to
quantify, with some case-studies, the likely scenario of
some events based on historical data and climate change
predictions to consider the following :
- Undertake some
case-studies on perceptions of likely victims, their coping
strategies, likely mitigation measures and cost of such
measures, and where, if any, will the required resource come
from.
- try to
evaluate people's perception on global climate change and
intensification of disasters.
- Attempt to
outline policy issues relating to Global Climate Change and
Natural Disasters.
- Identify the
linkages to attribute responsibility and enhance awareness
on the issue at different levels :
- Negotiators
at INC
- Government
leaders
- NGOs in
North and South
- Research and
scientific communities
- Media and
public
- Likely to be
affected and already vulnerable communities.
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